An American Journey

Major Cuts to the NWS and NOAA
Listen to this podcast for a complete analysis.

National Weather and NOAA Podcast Summary by Richard Olsenius

Discussion on proposed budget cuts to NOAA and FEMA, their impacts on weather forecasting, disaster response, and public safety.

Highlights

1. Texas Floods and Communication Challenges

• Catastrophic flash floods in Texas over the 4th of July weekend resulted in over 100 lives lost, including 27 at Camp Mystic, highlighting the importance of effective weather forecasting and communication systems.

• The National Weather Service (NWS) issued flood watches days in advance and flash flood warnings and emergency alerts during the event, with accurate predictions of river rise (14.3 feet in under three hours).

• Despite accurate forecasts, the "last mile problem" in communication was evident, as Kerr County officials and residents were not adequately informed or prepared, with warnings appearing on social media too late.

• Factors like cell service availability, alert fatigue, and confusion between flood watches and warnings contributed to the communication gap, emphasizing the need for clearer and more actionable messaging.

2. Proposed Budget Cuts to NOAA and Their Implications

• The Trump administration’s FY 2026 budget proposal includes a 27% reduction in NOAA funding, amounting to $4.5 billion, with the complete elimination of the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OHA), which coordinates climate research.

• Cuts would impact hundreds of federal and university research positions, regional climate data programs, and critical labs like the National Severe Storms Laboratory, Mauna Loa Laboratory, and hurricane forecasting facilities.

• The reduction in funding for NOAA satellites, such as Landsat, essential for flood monitoring and damage assessment, could degrade weather forecasting capabilities and lead to a plateau or regression in forecast accuracy.

• Critics argue these cuts represent an ideological agenda targeting climate-focused research, with potential long-term impacts on the ability to predict and respond to extreme weather events.

3. Privatization of Weather Forecasting and Disaster Response

• Proposed changes align with efforts to privatize weather forecasting, with plans to commercialize NOAA’s operations and shift disaster response responsibilities to individual states.

• Critics, including former NOAA administrator Rick Spinner, warn that privatization could lead to Americans paying for weather information currently provided for free, raising concerns about equitable access.

• Commerce Secretary Howard Linick and other key figures have ties to private firms with interests in weather derivatives and satellite imagery, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest.

• The administration’s plan to phase out FEMA by December 2025 would reduce federal disaster recovery funding and shift responsibilities to states, bypassing FEMA’s established grant processes.

4. Human and Institutional Costs of Budget Cuts

• Approximately 800 NOAA employees have already left since February, with another 2,000 positions potentially at risk if the budget passes, leading to staffing shortages in half of National Weather Service offices.

• Reduced staffing has already impacted 24-hour coverage and upper air balloon soundings, which are vital for forecast accuracy, further degrading the ability to predict extreme weather.

• Experts warn that dismantling research infrastructure would take years or decades to recover, likening it to "blowing up a dam and trying to rebuild it by gluing pieces back together."

5. Climate Change and Public Perception Challenges

• NOAA’s Climate Extreme Index shows a 58% increase in extreme weather events since the 1980s, underscoring the growing frequency and intensity of such events due to climate change.

• Experts like Michael Oppenheimer and Marshall Sheppard highlight the dangers of "normalcy bias," where individuals base decisions on past experiences, leading to dangerous overconfidence in the face of escalating threats.

• The Texas floods exemplify how outdated perceptions of risk can lead to tragic outcomes, as individuals underestimate the severity of new extreme weather events.

6. Political Actions and Their Impact on Weather Forecasting

• Texas Senator Ted Cruz inserted language into a Republican spending bill that eliminated $150 million for weather forecasting improvements and $50 million in NOAA grants for climate-related research, drawing criticism for the timing during the Texas floods.

• Environmental groups argue such actions exacerbate the deadly impact of disasters, while the administration defends the cuts as efforts to reduce bureaucratic bloat and politically driven programs.

• The broader implications of these actions include potential erosion of institutional knowledge and reduced capacity to adapt to the escalating threats posed by climate change.